The heinous massacre of 26 innocent tourists in Pahalgam has shocked India’s conscience and marked a turning point in India’s policy towards Pakistan. New Delhi’s response will be hardline, yet firmly rooted in law and legitimacy. For years, India showed restraint by adhering to the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) even as Pakistan continued sponsoring cross-border terror. Following the Pahalgam outrage, India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty. This decisive move — unprecedented in 65 years — marks a diplomatic watershed, opening the door for India to leverage the Indus waters in its self-defence. Islamabad angrily denounced India’s treaty suspension as an “act of war,” and a Pakistani leader even threatened that “either our water will flow or their blood will” – a chilling admission of how existential the Indus waters are to Pakistan. But India will not be bullied by bombast. Instead, India’s response will be methodical and lawful, bleeding Pakistan colorless by choking off the water lifeline of its economy through sheer infrastructure might. This strategy is not mere retaliation; it is assertive diplomacy aimed at securing India’s long-overdue water rights.
Jammu & Kashmir’s Historic Disadvantage
No region has borne a higher cost under the constraints of the IWT than Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). The treaty brokered by the World Bank in 1960 allocated the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India (33 million acre-feet of water annually) and the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan (135 million acre-feet). In effect, Pakistan was granted 80% of the Indus system’s waters, leaving India only 20% – a lopsided arrangement often referred to as the world’s most generous water-sharing pact. This imbalance severely curtailed Jammu and Kashmir’s ability to use its rivers. India was permitted only limited, “non-consumptive” use of the western rivers (e.g., run-of-the-river hydropower), with tight caps on storage and irrigation. Farmers in Jammu and Kashmir could legally irrigate only 701,000 acres from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. By contrast, Pakistan harnessed the Indus waters to irrigate over 47 million acres of its territory. Huge Pakistani dams such as Mangla (on the Jhelum) and Tarbela (on the Indus) were built to store multi-year flows, while upstream in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) was barred from developing any comparable storage. The result: fertile valleys in Jammu and Kashmir remained chronically under-irrigated and hydroelectrically underpowered, even as the rivers originating there turned Pakistan’s deserts green. This strategic inequity has long bred resentment in Jammu and Kashmir.
India’s course of action is clear: to aggressively maximize its utilization of the Indus Basin waters within the bounds of international law. We have achieved nearly 95% utilization of the eastern rivers’ 33 MAF through major dams, including Bhakra, Pong, and Ranjit Sagar, which bring irrigation to Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan while powering the northern grids. However, on the western rivers, our usage has remained minimal, limited to a handful of run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects, such as the 690 MW Salal and 390 MW Dul Hasti on the Chenab, the 480 MW Uri Power Stations instages on the Jhelum, and the 330 MW Kishanganga project on a Jhelum tributary. These projects, by design, do not significantly impede downstream flow. As of today, India has built no large storage dams on any of the western rivers; our total live storage capacity in Jammu and Kashmir is only a few hundred million cubic meters. We have also developed only a fraction of the 3.6 million acre-feet (MAF) of storage and 701,000 acres of irrigation that the IWT technically allowed us on the western rivers. In short, India has obeyed the treaty to its detriment, exercising extreme restraint.
Infrastructure Offensive
Now, freed from past political hesitation, India is prepared to exercise its legal rights under the treaty fully—and, if necessary, beyond it. India can build as many run-of-the-river hydropower plants on the western rivers as needed, create up to 3.6 billion cubic meters of storage (within the treaty’s allowance) for flood control and seasonal flow regulation, and irrigate hundreds of thousands of additional acres in J&K. By suspending the treaty in response to Pakistan’s material breach (state-sponsored terrorism), New Delhi has also opened the door to go beyond the treaty’s previous limits. International law favours the injured party in such scenarios: Article 60 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties permits voiding an agreement if the other side commits a fundamental breach. Pakistan’s use of terror as state policy qualifies, giving India solid legal footing to redirect the Indus waters for its own needs. Whether operating strictly within the treaty’s technical confines or in a post-treaty paradigm, India’s actions are justified as a legitimate defensive response, not a belligerent provocation.
To translate these rights into reality, India has undertaken an infrastructure initiative across the Indus Basin. The government has recently approved a three-step action plan to expedite numerous projects — including dams, barrages, and canals — aimed at capturing every drop of water India can legally utilize. Some, like the completed Shahpurkandi Dam in Punjab (now diverting 1,150 cusecs of the Ravi that previously flowed into Pakistan) and the planned Ujh multipurpose project in Jammu and Kashmir (which will store 925 million cubic meters and generate 196 MW), utilize the waters of the eastern rivers. Others focus on the western rivers: for example, the under-construction Pakal Dul dam (1,000 MW) on a Chenab tributary will create a sizable reservoir to regulate flows, and the Ratle project (850 MW) on the Chenab, which overcame Pakistani objections, will add generation capacity. Along with mid-sized ventures like Kiru and Kwar on the Chenab and the recently completed Kishanganga on the Jhelum, these initiatives form a cascade that incrementally increases India’s control over the timing of flows. Even run-of-river plants can manipulate their small pondage at critical moments to subtly delay or spike downstream water. Building such infrastructure in the Himalayas takes years, but the key is to start now with unflinching resolve. In the meantime, India has taken tactical steps, such as halting real-time data sharing and barring Pakistani officials from Indian projects — moves that keep Islamabad guessing and uneasy about India’s subsequent actions.
Draining Pakistan’s Lifeline, Legally
Water is to Pakistan what oil is to West Asia – the lifeblood of its economy. The Indus basin accounts for the vast majority of Pakistan’s freshwater. The western rivers supply 76% of Pakistan’s water, irrigate 80% of its farmland, and support 90% of its food production. Roughly 25% of Pakistan’s GDP is derived from agriculture, which is fed by the Indus River system. This means there is zero slack: any reduction in water availability will immediately strain Pakistan’s farms and cities. In past dry years, Pakistan faced severe canal-water shortages that sparked internal discord. Now, consider the scenario when India begins to withhold and utilize waters that would otherwise flow across the border. Even a moderate initial diminution – say 5–10% of peak flows – could impact millions of Pakistani farmers and significantly reduce crop yields. Over time, as India completes new dams and maximizes its consumptive use, Pakistan could find its vaunted Indus irrigation system operating at a fraction of its former capacity. This would truly “drain” Pakistan’s economy of its lifeblood.
Everything India does will remain either within the treaty’s technical confines or be justified by Pakistan’s material breach of it. India is not contemplating an indiscriminate cut-off (which would be considered an act of war). Rather, it will gradually squeeze Pakistan, capturing increments of water with each new project, tightening the flow like a tap. International observers should note that India is not stealing Pakistan’s water – only using what rightfully belongs to India and has been generously allowed to Pakistan under the treaty. With Pakistan blatantly violating the fundamental premise of peace and mutual respect, India has every right to reassess its obligations.
Let the world acknowledge the reality: Pakistan’s agriculture cannot survive without the Indus waters, and those waters mostly originate in Indian territory (largely in J&K). Yet, until now, people in J&K have derived minimal benefit from their rivers due to an overly generous treaty. India’s new stance aims to rectify this inequity.
Making India’s Case
India’s approach is grounded not only in hard power but also in evidence-based diplomacy. New Delhi will transparently present facts and figures on the global stage to justify its actions. India will remind the international community that the Indus Waters Treaty, despite its imbalance, was scrupulously respected by India through wars and crises – until it was derailed by Pakistan’s egregious support for terror. Data on river flows will demonstrate how restrained India’s water usage has been compared to the enormous volumes Pakistan has enjoyed. For instance, since 1960, India has never taken more than its allotted 33 million acre-feet (MAF) from the eastern rivers. In contrast, Pakistan receives approximately 135 million acre-feet (MAF) annually from the western rivers. India built no storage beyond what the treaty permitted, whereas Pakistan massively expanded its storage and canal system – by 2009, it had irrigated 47 million acres in the Indus basin, dwarfing India’s usage.
India will also highlight the steps taken in good faith, including participating in treaty-mandated dispute resolution, inviting neutral experts when Pakistan raised concerns about projects like Kishanganga and Ratle, and repeatedly urging Islamabad to negotiate updates to the treaty’s provisions. By contrast, India’s current measures are reversible and explicitly tied to Pakistani behavior. If Pakistan permanently halts cross-border terrorism, India can reassess and even reinstate the treaty’s full spirit. In diplomatic forums, New Delhi will emphasize that India’s aim is not to destroy Pakistan’s economy but to send an unambiguous wake-up call – Pakistan cannot expect to feast on India’s waters while spilling Indian blood.
Major powers are increasingly realizing that a pact struck in 1960, under vastly different circumstances, is no longer sacrosanct when one party has undermined it through asymmetric warfare. Even the World Bank, the treaty’s guarantor, has acknowledged India’s rights by siding with India in recent technical disputes. By staying meticulously within legal boundaries (India has not diverted water outside the Indus basin, nor taken more than its rightful share), we make it difficult for anyone to fault our moves. Global opinion is gradually shifting to ask Pakistan why it allowed matters to come to this point. The onus is on Islamabad to rebuild enough trust for cooperation to resume. Until then, India’s assertive water strategy will continue unabated.
Reclaiming Riparian Rights
In India’s diplomatic history, this will be remembered as the moment we finally turned off the tap of indulgence towards Pakistan. A hardline stance is not one India adopts lightly – only Pakistan’s endless provocations have made it necessary. By maximizing our use of the Indus waters, we are asserting our sovereign riparian rights that had been unjustly constrained. We are also empowering our citizens in Jammu & Kashmir, finally delivering the water security and power supply they have long deserved.
Let Pakistan and the world take note: India’s response to aggression will be multidimensional and firmly grounded in legality. We will not cross the line into wanton aggression – no sudden floods or unilateral grabs beyond our share. However, every terrorist attack Pakistan instigates will now carry a direct cost in cubic metres of water. Over time, this squeeze will make Pakistan feel what it is like to be truly parched. This strategy is not only effective but also just. As the upper riparian, India holds the high ground – literally and figuratively. India has been more than fair for far too long. Now, by bleeding Pakistan colourless through a calibrated water retaliation, New Delhi is teaching Pakistan the value of reciprocity. Peace, after all, cannot flow downstream only in one direction. If Pakistan wants the Indus to keep sustaining its people, it must earn that privilege by acting as a responsible neighbour. Until then, India will exercise its rights to the fullest, with unapologetic resolve. The roar of our rivers will henceforth carry a message of uncompromising sovereignty across the border and beyond.
The views and opinions expressed here belong solely to the author and do not reflect the views of BlueKraft Digital Foundation.
